有报告称处于“死亡螺旋”的牛肉和乳制品行业将在2030年前崩溃

原文：https://vegnews.com/2019/9/beef-and-dairy-industries-in-death-spiral-will-collapse-by-2030-report-says

注：译文谨供参考。

BEEF AND DAIRY INDUSTRIES IN “DEATH SPIRAL,” WILL COLLAPSE BY 2030, REPORT SAYS

有报告称处于“死亡螺旋”的牛肉和乳制品行业将在2030年前崩溃

Due to developing technologies in cellular agriculture and fermentation, think tank RethinkX predicts that in ten years the animal agriculture industry will be “all but bankrupt.”

由于细胞农业（cellular agriculture）和发酵方面的发展技术兴起，智库RethinkX预测畜牧业在十年内将“濒临破产”。

by ANNA STAROSTINETSKAYA

作者：ANNA STAROSTINETSKAYA

SEPTEMBER 18, 2019

2019年9月18日

The beef and dairy industries are on a path to collapse by 2030, according to an extensive 76-page report by independent think tank RethinkX titled, “The Second Domestication of Plants and Animals, the Disruption of the Cow, and the Collapse of Industrial Livestock Farming.” 

根据独立智库RethinkX发表的一份题为“植物和动物的第二次驯化、牛业的瓦解和工业化畜牧业的崩溃”的76页详尽报告，牛肉和乳制品行业在2030年前走向崩溃。

The think tank posits that new technologies are rapidly going to replace the way protein is produced, ultimately eliminating the need for traditional animal agriculture. Instead, a “Food-as-Software” system will soon be in place which RethinkX predicts will be 100 times more land efficient, 10 to 25 times more feedstock efficient, 20 times more time efficient, and 10 times more water efficient, all while producing significantly less waste. 

该智库认为，新技术将很快取代目前蛋白质的生产方式，最终会消除传统畜牧业的需求。取而代之的是一个将很快出现的“食品即软件”（Food-as-Software）系统；RethinkX预测，采用该系统后，土地效率提高100倍，原料效率提高10到25倍，时间效率提高20倍，用水效率提高10倍，同时大幅减少废物的产生。

“We are on the cusp of the deepest, fastest, most consequential disruption in food and agricultural production since the first domestication of plants and animals ten thousand years ago,” the report states. 

该报告宣称：“自从人类于一万年前第一次驯化植物和动物之后，我们现在正迎来食品和农业生产的最深、最快、最重大的瓦解。”

RethinkX explains that the first domestication of animals and plants allowed humans to master macro-organisms and the second will focus on mastering micro-organisms through technologies such as cellular agriculture and precision fermentation (a process used by companies such as Perfect Day that program microorganisms to create dairy proteins without the cow). 

RethinkX解释说，第一次驯化动物和植物时，人类驯服了大型生物（macro-organisms），而第二次驯化将专注于利用技术驯服微生物，例如细胞农业和精密发酵（precision fermentation）技术。Perfect Day等公司采用的精密发酵工艺，通过设计微生物来产生乳蛋白，并不需要使用牛。

As these technologies continue to develop, the animal-free products they create will become increasingly cheaper, eventually “approaching the cost of sugar,” according to the report. 

据该报告分析，随着这些技术的继续发展，其创造的无动物产品（animal-free products）将变得越来越便宜，最终价格会“接近糖的成本”。

RethinkX estimates that by 2030, the number of cows in the US will decrease by 50 percent and both the beef and dairy industries will be “all but bankrupt”—with similar predictions for other animal-derived products such as other animal meat, eggs, leather, and collagen. 

RethinkX估计，到2030年，美国牛的数量将减少50%，牛肉和乳制品这两个行业都将“濒临破产”──对于其它的动物源性产品，例如其它动物肉类、蛋类、皮革和胶原等，也有相似的预测结果。

“The beef and, especially, dairy industries operate on extremely thin margins, with high operating and financial leverage, and are propped up by government subsidies,” the report states. “Both are already hanging in the balance and just a small drop in demand will send them spiraling towards bankruptcy.” 

“牛肉行业，特别是乳制品行业，经营利润极其微薄，经营杠杆和财务杠杆高，并受政府补贴的资助，”该报告指出。“这两个行业都已经岌岌可危，只要需求略有下降就会促使它们加速走向破产。”

By 2035, RethinkX predicts that 60 percent of land in the US used for animal agriculture, including feed production—which equates to 485 million acres or 13 times the size of Iowa—will be free for other uses. 

RethinkX预测，到2035年，美国畜牧业（包括饲料生产）所使用的60%的土地──等于4.85亿英亩或者13倍爱荷华州的面积──将被改作其他用途。

“Product after product that we extract from the cow will be replaced by superior, cheaper, modern alternatives,” the report states. “triggering a death spiral of increasing prices, decreasing demand, and reversing economies of scale for the industrial cattle farming industry, which will collapse long before we see modern technologies produce the perfect, cellular steak.” 

“我们利用牛来制造的一个接一个的产品都将被价廉物美的现代化替代品所取代，”该报告声称。“从而引发工业化养牛业的价格上涨、需求下降、规模经济倒退的死亡螺旋（death spiral）；最终结局是，远在我们看到现代技术生产出完美的细胞牛排（cellular steak）之前，这个行业早就崩溃了。”